I am pleased to announce the re-opening of paid subscriptions to my monthly investment newsletter for a 3 weeks period from July 1-21, 2011. Only a limited number of subscriptions will be offered – strictly on a first-come first-served basis – to enable me to provide personalised attention and guidance to each subscriber.
If you are interested in subscribing, please send an email to: mobugobu@yahoo.com at the earliest for details. Your email address will be kept in confidence.
The newsletter has completed 18 issues. The past few months have been a challenging and humbling experience for me. It was a challenge to find stocks with growth potential at reasonable prices while the Sensex kept reaching new 52 week highs through most of 2010. The prolonged 8 months long corrective phase since Nov ‘10 has been humbling because many stocks have not performed up to expectations, and yet subscribers have kept faith in my stock picking abilities.
Those who have been following my blog posts regularly know by now what kind of stocks I like, and what type of stocks I avoid. The guiding principle has been to choose well-managed, financially sound companies that give steady (rather than spectacular) returns and have growth prospects.
Non-subscribers may be interested to know how the recommended stocks have fared. Without revealing the names of the stocks (it won’t be fair to my subscribers to do so), here is a brief results table with prices on recommended dates, subsequent high and low prices, and gains/(loss) in percentage as on July 1 ‘11:
| Stock | Date | Price | High | Low | Close | Gain/(Loss) |
| 1a | Jan ‘10 | 206 | 399 | 195 | 374 | 81.5 |
| 1b | Jan ‘10 | 131 | 316 | 120 | 185 | 41.2 |
| 2 | Feb ‘10 | 78 | 94 | 55 | 65 | (16.7) |
| 3 | Mar ‘10 | 178 | 305 | 168 | 236 | 32.6 |
| 4 | Apr ‘10 | 82 | 116 | 61 | 73 | (11) |
| 5 | May ‘10 | 171 | 247 | 85 | 125 | (26.9) |
| 6 | Jun ‘10 | 101 | 156 | 98 | 127 | 25.7 |
| 7 | Jul ‘10 | 285 | 305 | 213 | 230 | (19.3) |
| 8 | Aug ‘10 | 274 | 434 | 264 | 421 | 53.6 |
| 9 | Sep ‘10 | 130 | 141 | 95 | 123 | (5.4) |
| 10 | Oct ‘10 | 120 | 135 | 89 | 108 | (10) |
| 11 | Nov ‘10 | 101 | 150 | 55 | 71 | (29.7) |
| 12 | Dec ‘10 | 53 | 59 | 37 | 48 | (9.4) |
| 13 | Jan ‘11 | 91 | 122 | 90 | 116 | 27.5 |
| 14 | Feb ‘11 | 294 | 329 | 257 | 295 | 0.03 |
| 15 | Mar ‘11 | 444 | 502 | 405 | 480 | 8.1 |
| 16 | Apr ‘11 | 107 | 117 | 95 | 105 | (1.9) |
| 17 | May ‘11 | 275 | 280 | 250 | 277 | 0.07 |
All 18 stocks are small or mid-caps, picked for long-term investment of minimum 2 to 3 years. The fact that some of them are showing decent gains – even after falling from their highs - is a testimony to their underlying strength. Note that 9 of the 18 stocks are showing losses. That gives me a ‘hit ratio’ of only 50% – which is no better than tossing a coin.
But have a look at the ‘High’ column. One stock more than doubled, five gained 50% and every single stock moved up after my recommendations. In a 2-3 year time frame, I expect most of the laggards to make up the slack.
What is important to appreciate is that these stocks were not ‘cheap’ and had already run up quite a bit when they were recommended. The lesson is that even near 52 week highs and subsequent corrective phases of the Sensex, there are stocks available that can provide decent returns. Since the recommended stocks are all regular dividend payers, the actual returns will be higher.
If you need help in selecting good stocks in uncertain times, all you need to do is subscribe to my Monthly Investment Newsletter. Send me an email (at mobugobu@yahoo.com) soon – subscriptions will close on July 21, 2011.
