Tampilkan postingan dengan label multibagger. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label multibagger. Tampilkan semua postingan

Kamis, 24 November 2011

Do investors have the ‘if-its-free-I’ll-take-two’ syndrome?

Before I can answer the question, I need to tell the story about the syndrome.

A young boy was being taught by his father about prudence in handling money. Here are the three important guidelines provided by the father:

  • Live within your means and try to save money from whatever little you may have
  • Always ask the price of anything you wish to buy, and then decide if you can afford to buy it
  • Don’t blindly accept a quoted price; try to bargain and buy at a lower price

Well-versed in the guidelines, the young boy went to the local ‘paanwala’ to buy some candy. On being told that the candy cost a Rupee, he promptly started to bargain. Despite repeated pleas by the ‘paanwala’ that there was no discount on a candy costing a Rupee, the boy would not relent. A small crowd had gathered on hearing the commotion, and potential customers were walking away. In desperation, the ‘paanwala’ handed over a candy to the boy, saying: “Take this. It’s free. Now please leave.” The boy was delighted, but refused to budge. “It’s free? Then I’ll take two!”

That boy must have grown up to be a stock investor. He also must have told all his friends – who also became stock investors. How do I know this? Because of the proliferation of web sites offering “sure-shot free stock tips” and “99.9% success guaranteed Nifty tips”.

There was a time when I used to go out of my way to provide free advice to young investors about what stocks to pick and how to build a portfolio. But I no longer give free advice – except in my blog posts. Why? Because I found out that most investors were not following my advice at all. In fact, they were doing just the opposite. They would not buy the stocks I’d recommend, and would go right ahead and buy the stocks I suggested that they avoid!

Then a wise reader related the story of a doctor in a small town who decided to treat patients for free after his retirement. Hardly any one showed up at his chamber. Then he decided to charge a reasonable fee. Soon, he had several patients visiting his chamber every day. The moral of the story is: No one respects free advice.

The other day, I received an email: “Can you please suggest one multibagger stock?” Usually, I ignore such emails, or answer back: “I don’t provide free stock advice.” But I was in a genial mood that day, and wrote back: “Buy Tata Steel.” The response floored me completely. Let alone thank me, this smart fellow came back with: “Any penny-stock multibagger?” This is what I meant by ‘if-it-is-free-I’ll-take-two’ syndrome!

A more dangerous affliction is the ‘if-it-is-free-I’ll-take-as many-as-possible’ syndrome. I got this email from such an investor: “I would like to buy some fundamentally strong stocks in this bear market. Please send me a list of such stocks.” I answered: “I don’t give individual stock advice for free. But you can take a look at some of the beaten down stocks in the Sensex and Nifty indices.”  Back came a response: “OK, I promise to send your fee, but send me the list of stocks now.” I didn’t bother to reply, only to receive this reminder: “I still haven’t received the list of stocks.” Later, I found out that this freeloader was regularly providing free stock tips in one of the investor forums!

The answer to the original question is: Many investors do. I think it is part of the human psyche that we get swayed by products that are offered ‘free’. That is why retailers periodically offer “Buy-1-get-1-free” deals to get rid of unsold or unfashionable or oversized/undersized stock. Shops tend to be overcrowded during such offers.

When it comes to stock advice, ‘free’ usually means ‘not good’. Investors need to appreciate that. If some one really knew which stocks will become multibaggers in future, he would not tell a soul and buy as many of those stocks he could afford before the stock market got wind of it. 

Selasa, 15 Februari 2011

Planning for a hassle-free Retirement (a guest post)

Do you remember what you did with your first pay/payment cheque? (Haven’t received your first cheque yet? What are you doing on this page!) Did you blow it up having a good time with friends and family? Why not? You don’t remain young forever. There is a long and bright future ahead of you – and plenty of time to save and invest. Right?

Nishit doesn’t think so. He started planning for his retirement as soon as he received his first pay cheque. He wanted to use the leverage of compounding over his entire working life. In this month’s guest post, he explains why.

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Everyone invests money with the aim of having a comfortable nest egg at retirement. Most of us have not worked out how much money we need at retirement, and at what rate of return we will be comfortable. Most of us chase multibagger returns in the equity markets, burning our fingers in the process.

The magic of compounding is such that 1 lakh invested in the markets today turns into 19 lakhs after 20 years at a rate of 16% return every year. To make 16% every year your asset portfolio need not take undue risks. A Government securities fund over the past 10 years has given a compounded return of 9% on an annualized basis, and a good mutual fund like the HDFC Top 200 has given annualized return of 34% over the past 10 years.

Inflation is a monster which is like a silent killer. Now assuming an inflation rate of 8%, after 20 years, expenses of 1 lakh become 4.66 lakhs. Your assets of 1 lakh have transformed into 19 lakhs whereas the expenses have just gone up to 4.66 lakhs. You have a nice cushion of 14 lakhs.

Gold as an asset class has also yielded an annualized compounded return of 17% over the past 10 years. The trio of equity, gilt funds and gold should form the cornerstone of any investment portfolio. What I am trying to point out here is that investments need not be complex; any common person can invest making use of investment vehicles like Mutual Funds.

The above returns are through investments using the SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) method. One can invest a fixed amount every month, say Rs 5000 each, in a gold ETF, equity fund and a Debt fund. The idea of doing this is that you do not try and catch the bottom or top of any market. One need not invest in too many funds at one go.

India’s economy is growing and will continue to do so for the next 10 years at least. Anyone who is planning to retire with a comfortable income must start doing a SIP at the earliest. By doing this, one can ensure that one is financially independent after retirement. Add to this a Medical Insurance policy that will cover major health care expenses post retirement. The earlier one buys a Medical Insurance policy the fewer are the tests one has to undergo and easier it is to get one. Everyone should have a personal medical health insurance policy, as company policies expire when one leaves the company.

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(Nishit Vadhavkar is a Quality Manager working at an IT MNC. Deciphering economics, equity markets and piercing the jargon to make it understandable to all is his passion. "We work hard for our money, our money should work even harder for us" is his motto.

Nishit blogs at Money Manthan.)

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