There is nothing like a nice, long bear market to separate the men from the boys. Banking sector stocks have been no exception. Back in Dec ‘10, banking sector stocks were undergoing corrections after touching new highs. Those corrections turned out to be the first phase of a 14 months long bear market.
There are two schools of thought in the stock market. One group believes that stocks that have undergone deeper corrections during a bear market, are likely to gain more during the subsequent bull rally. There may be some truth to this line of thought – if gains are measured in percentage terms from the lows.
The other group prefers stocks that fall less during a bear phase, but recover more quickly in the subsequent bull phase – even though the gains may not be high in percentage terms. If you are not sure which group you should follow, have a look at the charts of ten banking sector stocks below to help you to decide.
Punjab National Bank
Punjab National Bank’s stock was one of the star performers during the bull phase from Mar ‘09 to Nov ‘10. The bear market shaved 46% off its peak level of 1395. The recent bull rally from its Dec ‘11 low of 751 pierced the 200 day EMA from below and reached 1091 – a 45% gain from the low. But the stock price remains in a bearish pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms and has slipped down below its 200 day EMA. Technically, the stock is in a bear market. Avoid.
Bank of Baroda
Bank of Baroda’s stock dropped from a peak of 1050 in Nov ‘10 to a low of 630 in Dec ‘11 – a 40% fall. The recent rally topped out at 881 – a gain of 40% from its low. The stock is trading above its 200 day EMA, but is still in a bearish pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms. Hold.
Central Bank
Central Bank’s stock made a double-top at 249 during Oct-Nov ‘10 and fell steadily down to touch a low of 63 in Jan ‘12 – a 75% fall from its peak. Though the recent rally gave a 76% gain from its low to its intermediate top of 111, the stock is trading below its 200 day EMA and remains deep inside a bear market. Avoid.
Corporation Bank
The stock price of Corporation Bank fell 59% from its top of 815 to its bottom of 335. The subsequent rally gained 57%. The stock is struggling to stay above its 200 day EMA, and remains in a down trend. Note the sharp volume spike as it crossed above its 200 day EMA – an indication that it may not fall much further. Hold.
Indian Overseas Bank
Indian Overseas Bank’s stock dropped 58% from its peak of 176 to a low of 73. Though the stock price rose sharply above its 200 day EMA – gaining 73% from its low – it has dropped equally fast and remains in a bear market. Avoid.
HDFC Bank
A favourite of the FIIs for obvious reasons, HDFC Bank’s stock has risen steadily to touch a new high in Feb ‘12 – forming a bullish pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms. Despite several drops below its long-term moving average, the stock is in a bull market. If you think that HDFC Bank’s stock is too expensive, and it is better to go for ‘cheap’ stocks like Central Bank of Indian Overseas Bank – think again. Cheap can get cheaper. Buy.
ICICI Bank
The stock price of ICICI Bank lost almost 50% from its peak of 1277 in Nov ‘10. The recent rally produced a 55% gain from its Dec ‘11 low of 641. The stock is in a clear down trend and struggling to get out of its bear market. Hold.
Axis Bank
Axis Bank’s stock touched a high of 1608 in Oct ‘10 and a trough of 784 in Jan ‘12 – a 51% loss. The sharp rally to 1309 means a 67% gain. But the stock price is in a long-term down trend and struggling to get out of a strong bear grip. Hold.
Kotak Mahindra Bank
The stock price of Kotak Mahindra Bank is in a bull market and touched a new high in Feb ‘12. The subsequent correction is receiving good support from its 20 day EMA. Buy.
Yes Bank
Yes Bank’s stock made a double-bottom (in Feb ‘11 and Jan ‘12) reversal pattern and re-entered a bull market. The stock is consolidating, and should test and break above its Nov ‘10 top of 388. Buy.
