Why did Reliance announce a share buyback?

Regular readers of this blog know that I am biased against any company that has ‘Reliance’ in its name. So it should not come as a surprise that all actions by the Ambani brothers are viewed through a lens of strong suspicion by me.

If you are a dyed-in-the-wool Reliance investor, please don’t take umbrage at my tirade. Just ignore it. If you are considering an entry into this erstwhile darling of the Indian stock market, please read through and then decide.

The performance of Reliance companies have been less than stellar during the past couple of years. The stock market has punished all the group company stocks, including those of the big daddy of them all, RIL. The Ambani brothers have become wealthy beyond belief and have acquired notoriety by using various dubious means to circumvent the rules and accumulate the shares of their own companies. The hammering of Reliance group stock prices has dented their considerable personal wealth.

What better way to make a little extra cash than to announce a buyback before announcing Q3 results? RIL’s Q3 results – to be announced on Jan 20 ‘12 – is not expected to be great. That may lead to further selling of a stock that has already lost more than a third from its 2009 peak. The buyback announcement caused a price spurt – providing a nice opportunity to make a few extra bucks.

What will happen to small investors holding the stock? Not much – unless they use the current price spurt to book profits. Buybacks are a method used by companies ostensibly to ‘reward’ shareholders. How? Usually, the bought back shares are extinguished – which means they cease to exist. So, the equity capital of the company gets reduced and correspondingly, the EPS increases. The P/E ratio becomes lower, making the stock look more attractive valuation-wise.

But it all depends on how much of the equity capital gets bought back and extinguished. A similar buyback was announced six years back, but only a small percentage of the total equity capital was bought back. If it is a tiny percentage this time as well, it will have little or no effect on the EPS or P/E. RIL is likely to buy the shares from the open market – which means small investors will get no particular benefit.

A share buyback can be an indication that the management thinks that the shares are undervalued. It can also mean that the company is bereft of ideas about what to do with their money to enhance growth. More likely the latter, based on the totally unrelated ‘di’worse’ifications that the elder Ambani has undertaken of late – into sectors like retail, telecom, media.

Make no mistakes. The refinery business has been – and continues to be - a cash cow. But refinery margins are coming down and the gas business has been mired in controversies. None of the unrelated businesses have performed well so far. Technically, the chart looks weak and the stock price can fall to its 2009 low.

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Why good investment stocks may not be good trading stocks – and vice versa

The hundreds of stocks that are regularly traded in the BSE and NSE can be broadly separated into three groups – stocks that are good for investment; stocks that are good for trading; and, stocks that are plain junk and should not be touched.

Regular readers of this blog know that I’m neither a great fan of short-term or day trading, nor do I encourage small investors to do so. The only person that gets rich is the broker. No wonder various internet investment groups are full of brokers constantly giving short-term buy and sell calls.

However, it is a fact of life that small investors fall prey to the lure of making quick and easy money, and frequent investment groups and web sites that offer ‘free 100% sure-shot short-term calls’ as a short-cut to untold riches.

I was taken aback when I read read about a short-term sell call on Titan Industries. If the stock falls below a certain level, then it could fall by a whopping 2% more! However, if it rises above a certain level, then the uptrend will resume. A quick look at Titan’s 2 years closing chart pattern shows a more than 50% gain from its Feb ‘11 low, followed by a 3% correction that must have triggered the call.

Titan has gained 300% in 2 years, providing fabulous returns to long-term holders. Any sensible broker would have given a ‘buy the dip’ call instead of a short-term sell call for a paltry 2% profit.

Put it down to ignorance, or inexperience, or both. Many traders believe in the myth that all fundamentals are ‘in the price’ – so it is a waste of time to spend hours in stock analysis.

A trader, if he wants to make money consistently, has to spend hours studying technical charts to try and get into trades that will make huge profits - to cover up many small losses that are part of a trader’s life. Even a novice can take a look at Titan’s chart and conclude that a trade on the long side will be more profitable.

It is precisely because Titan is such a great stock for long-term buy-and-hold investment that it is not a good stock for short-term trading. It doesn’t provide enough wild swings to get in and out with big profits.

Is the vice versa true – that good trading stocks do not make good investment stocks? What is a good trading stock? For the answers to both questions, take a look at the 2 years closing chart pattern of Reliance.

Thanks to its massive market capitalisation, the Reliance stock finds a place in most large-cap and diversified equity funds as an investment-grade stock. But on 2 years, 1 year, 6 months and 3 months time frames, it has provided negative returns.

The rounding-top bearish pattern of the 200 day EMA, and the 50 day EMA trading below the 200 day EMA for the past five months are clear indications that the bears are getting the upper hand.

Experienced traders probably got seriously rich just by trading Reliance over the past couple of years. Look at the frequent and large price swings – just the kind of chart that should make traders rub their hands in glee.

The moral of the story? Whether you are a trader, or investor, or both – it improves your chances of making big money if you do your homework in selecting stocks.

Why is the stock market so excited about an unexciting budget?

These are the irreverent views of a non-economist. Take them with a pinch of salt.

It isn’t bad, so it must be good

There was a lot of uncertainty surrounding the budget this year. Rising inflation was not contained even after several interest rate hikes by the RBI. Higher interest rates were beginning to slow down Indian Inc’s growth momentum. Some tough tax measures were expected from the Finance Minister (FM). None came. The markets heaved a collective sigh of relief.

Shorts got trapped

The four months long correction in the stock markets had turned sentiments negative. All attempts at pullback rallies were getting sold into. The FIIs were selling heavily and redeploying in their home markets. Several experienced players were shorting the market. The unexpected surge in the indices on Budget Day was mainly due to short covering.

Auto sector gets an indirect boost 

A 2% excise duty cut was offered to auto makers a couple of years back as part of the economic stimulus. A roll back was discounted by the market. The FM left the excise duty unchanged. Feb ‘11 auto sales numbers have shown decent growth. Auto stocks soared on this twin good news.

Smart move from ITC

An increase in excise duty for cigarettes and other tobacco-related products was widely expected. In anticipation, ITC had increased the prices of some of its most popular brands prior to the budget. No such increase was announced by the FM. Don’t expect your pack of smokes to get cheaper. ITC’s bottom line will be a direct beneficiary.

Not so great for Mukesh Ambani

By transferring his shareholding in Reliance to a clutch of Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) companies, Mukesh Ambani ‘legally’ avoided paying income and other taxes (such as dividend distribution tax). LLPs have been brought under the purview of 18.5% MAT. Bad luck for big brother – he has to now pay taxes like a mere mortal! If only he had known earlier, he may not have built the ostentatious eyesore he calls home.

Reduced surcharge on corporate taxes

This would reduce cash outflows, and is a definite positive. Hopefully, the extra cash will get channeled into expansion activities and help to increase GDP growth. Investors may get rewarded with higher dividends.

Tax benefits for senior citizens

By reducing the qualifying age for a senior citizen from 65 to 60, several lakh tax payers will be able to avail higher tax exemptions. Some of the extra tax savings are likely to find their way into MFs and equity.

Does all this justify a 600 point rise in the Sensex today? Is the correction over? Should investors start buying again? Answers to these questions will become clearer over the next few days – now that the uncertainty about budget proposals are behind us.

Don’t let relief cloud reality. There has been little change in the global or local situations. Uprisings continue in the Middle East. Higher oil prices will further stoke the fire of inflation. Get set for another interest rate hike. FIIs were net sellers on Budget Day. The Sensex and Nifty are near strong resistance zones.

Stick to your asset allocation, and don’t get swayed by short-term index moves.

12 Sensex stocks displaying the ‘death cross’

The main reason why the Sensex isn’t showing a ‘death cross’ yet, is that only 12 of the 30 Sensex stocks are showing the ‘death cross’. The balance 18 are technically still in a bull market. For the uninitiated, the ‘death cross’ is the 50 day EMA crossing below the 200 day EMA on a price chart, signalling the beginning of a bear market. (The 50 day EMA crossing above the 200 day EMA, signalling the beginning of a bull market, is called a ‘golden cross’.)

Chart patterns of the 12 Sensex stocks displaying the ‘death cross’ (marked by blue ovals) are discussed below:

BHEL

BHEL is a PSU blue-chip that started correcting after hitting a peak in Oct ‘10. The correction in the Sensex from Nov ‘10 exacerbated the fall. The ‘death cross’ occurred in end-Nov ‘10, two days after the stock dropped sharply to an intra-day low of 2060. A strong pullback took the stock up to 2379, where it faced strong resistance from the combined 100 day and 200 day EMAs.

Though technically in a bear market, the stock is trying to build a base. A move above 2379 will create a bullish pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms. The RSI and slow stochastic are showing positive divergences, having reached higher tops as the stock made a lower top. Use the dip to accumulate.

DLF

DLF, the real-estate high flier, doesn’t really score very high on management ethics, accounting transparency or investor friendliness. The stock is in a long-term bear market. A brief rally took the stock to a 52 week high of 397 in early-Oct ‘10. That was an opportunity to sell. The ‘death cross’ in Dec ‘10 has restored the bear market. With the recent tightening of loans to real-estate players by banks and housing finance companies, you can forget about investing in this stock even as a contrarian play. It may be headed down to two-digits.

Hero Honda

Hero Honda was one of the stars of the bull market till its peak of 2094 in Apr ‘10. A technically overbought condition started a corrective spell. The confirmed news of Honda, Japan pulling out of the joint venture was given a thumbs down by the market. The uncertainty about the future has led to heavy selling. The ‘death cross’ in end-Jan ‘11 is signalling a bear market for this blue-chip. Avoid.

Jaiprakash Associates

Jaiprakash Associates has been in a down trend since touching a high of 180 in Oct ‘09. The ‘death cross’ occurred in May ‘10, confirming the bear market. The rally from Sep-Nov ‘10 was an exit opportunity. Launching huge projects and borrowing money by the truck-load seems to be the core competency of this company. The stock is headed towards low double-digits. Avoid.

Larsen & Toubro

It is a bit disappointing to see a blue-chip like Larsen & Toubro in this group of bearish Sensex stocks. It started correcting with the Sensex after touching a peak of 2212 on Nov 4 ‘10. The sharp fall in Jan ‘11 was partly due to the less-than-expected Q3 performance. The re-structuring into 9 separate companies has also caused some uncertainty in the minds of investors. The ‘death cross’ will occur tomorrow, but I would use this dip to accumulate the shares of this fundamentally strong and investor-friendly company.

Maruti Suzuki

Maruti Suzuki’s chart pattern has two ‘death crosses’ – one in May ‘10 and the other in Jan ‘11. What does it indicate? Technical analysis is not a science, and no rule is sacrosanct. The ‘death cross’ usually indicates the start of a bear market. But not in this case. The stock has been consolidating sideways since reaching a top of 1740 in Sep ‘09 – causing the ‘death cross’ to occur twice without entering a bear market. Yesterday’s low of 1170 formed a possible double-bottom. The RSI and slow stochastic are indicating a likely upward bounce. Accumulate.

NTPC

The NTPC stock chart pattern is also showing two ‘death crosses’ – the first in May ‘10 and the second in Nov ‘10. The stock has been drifting downwards since touching a peak of 242 on Dec 31 ‘09, and is in a bear market. The hype about the phenomenal growth and profit opportunities in the power sector has proved to be just that – hype. Avoid.

ONGC

The ONGC chart also has two ‘death crosses’ – one in Apr ‘10 and the other in Jan ‘11. The first one didn’t cause too much damage to the bulls. The current one is unlikely to do much damage also – because the FPO has been scheduled for Mar ‘11, and the DIIs are likely to buy at dips till the FPO goes through. This is a great company but the government’s meddling has messed up its operations. This is a major reason why I avoid all PSU stocks. Accumulate.

Reliance Comm

Where is the ‘death cross’ in the Reliance Communications chart? It happened more than two years back, and is not showing up in the one year chart pattern! The stock is in a long-term bear market and should ideally be removed from the Sensex 30 index. Only big-brother can bail this company out. Don’t go anywhere near this.

Reliance Infra

Reliance Infra chart also has two ‘death crosses’. The first one was caused by the sideways movement in Feb ‘10. The next one in Sep ‘10 signalled the bear market. Anil Ambani has proven to be a big bag of wind with a slow leak. If you are invested in this company, bail out now before it becomes too late.

Reliance Ind.

Reliance chart has two ‘death crosses’ as well – one in Aug ‘10 and the other in Jan ‘11. The first one was due to the sideways consolidation that has generated negative returns in the past one year. But the second one looks more ominous. The fall in Jan ‘11 has been steep and on increasing volumes. If Reliance doesn’t recover soon, it will drag down the Sensex with it. The technical indicators are hinting at a further fall. Wait for the correction to play out before entering. 

Tata Power

The ‘death cross’ in the Tata Power chart hasn’t yet happened – even though it has been marked in Sep ‘10. The 50 day EMA spent only a few trading sessions below the 200 day EMA due to the sideways consolidation, followed by a 52 week high. The current corrective spell may push the stock into a bear market. Wait for the correction to play out before entering.