The Sensex Fool’s Four stocks

This is a sequel to last Thursday’s post: Fool’s Four stock investment strategy. Before proceeding further, let me thank readers Googol, Purnendu and Rishi for providing me with their lists.

There are a few stocks common in their lists with mine, but there are differences due to changes in current market prices, adjustments for split/bonus and calculation of dividends. I have checked the list to the extent possible, without turning it into a research project. But there may be errors in my list as well.

The point to note is that the stocks that make the list – with one notable exception – have under-performed the Sensex by various degrees. That is the whole idea behind the Fool’s Four strategy. Without further ado, here are the Sensex Fool’s Four stocks:

1. NTPC
2. Jaiprakash Associates
3. ITC
4. ONGC
5. Wipro
6. Tata Steel

Why 6 stocks? Well, if you read the previous post, you will know that the stock ranked 1 – viz. NTPC - is supposed to be dropped from the list. That leaves 5 stocks. Regular readers may be aware that I am biased against PSU stocks because the government treats them as ‘free ATMs’ and run them to the ground. That eliminates ONGC from my list.

Given below are the one year closing charts of the remaining four – compared with the Sensex (in green):-

Jaiprakash Associates

Jaiprakash Associates has been a significant underperformer for the past one year, and it isn’t a surprise that it is at the top of the list. The company’s ambitions have far exceeded its execution capabilities. The huge debt burden is a millstone around its neck. Since it has fallen so much, the chances are better for a higher percentage gain when the market eventually turns around.

ITC

ITC is the odd-one-out of this list. It was a market performer till Feb ‘11, but has significantly outperformed the Sensex from Mar ‘11 onwards. The special centenary dividend boosted the dividend yield. The dividend is unlikely to be repeated next year. But this is a great stock to own – even if it wasn’t on the list.

Wipro

Wipro had outperformed the Sensex till mid-Jul ‘11. It is the last two months that haven’t gone well. There are management issues that haven’t yet been sorted out to the market’s satisfaction. Of late, it has fallen behind aggressive competitors like Cognizant and HCL Tech. But it is a good company and may fight back.

Tata Steel

Like Wipro, Tata Steel has underperformed the Sensex in the last two months. It is the lowest cost integrated steel maker in India and extremely well-managed. The Corus integration is still a work-in-progress, and the real benefits of the acquisition may be a couple of years away. But I have no doubts that the current problems in Europe will be overcome, and the company’s bottom line will significantly improve.

The Fool’s Four strategy suggests that you invest equal amounts of money in all four stocks, and make any adjustments only after one year. Will the strategy work? There is only one way to find out – by investing. Or, you can opt out by only investing ‘on paper’ and check back after one year.

The implication of high oil price for investors – a guest post

With oil prices ruling above $100 per barrel, India’s trade deficit is widening and inflation remains a major concern. In this month’s guest post, Nishit looks at the implication of high oil prices for investors, and suggests how we can benefit from this adversity.

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From a low of about $33, Crude Oil has now spiralled up to a high of almost $110 a barrel. Crude Oil is the lubricant which runs the world, so let us investigate why the rise in price and what are its implications for India.

Most of the crude oil deposits lie in the Middle East. Middle East has been racked by turmoil and unrest. Supply of oil has been threatened in Libya and other parts like Saudi Arabia. The price rise has been mainly on the back of supply concerns.

India imports 70% of its oil, and if the price rises it implies that it would need to spend more dollars to buy the fuel. A country earns dollars by exports, inward remittances by Indians settled abroad and also foreign investments into India.

We spend the dollars on imports. The difference between exports and imports is known as Current Account Deficit. As we import more than we export, we are always in trade deficit.

If Oil is pricey, the deficit widens, and India’s credit worthiness declines making it less attractive for foreign investors. Petrol price rise gets passed on to the consumer, thereby leaving him with less income to spend.

Subsidy on Diesel of almost Rs 18 to a litre weakens government finances leaving it with less money to spend on infrastructure and developmental activities.

In 2008, crude oil price rose and peaked at around $145 per barrel. All the time, as oil price was rising the equity markets did not react too much to the price rise. A month after the prices peaked, the markets tanked. This was aided also by the Lehman Brothers meltdown.

Now how do we play this as small investors?

We have oil producers like ONGC and Cairn. Cairn is a major beneficiary but now caught up in legal tangle over its acquisition by Vedanta, and ONGC has to bear the subsidy burden.

The legal tangle has no effect on its daily operations and hence I would still prefer Cairn to ONGC. Portfolio allocation could be these two companies and Gold. Average gold price per ounce is 15 times a barrel of oil. This implies fair price for Gold now is $1650 per ounce.

This also means avoid the Auto sector, Banks and anything which is linked to rising Interest Rates. Rates will keep rising as government battles inflation and also seeks to raise more money to pay for oil.

Don’t like the petrochemicals sector? Long Gold and short Banks could be an interesting option.

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(Nishit Vadhavkar is a Quality Manager working at an IT MNC. Deciphering economics, equity markets and piercing the jargon to make it understandable to all is his passion. "We work hard for our money, our money should work even harder for us" is his motto.

Nishit blogs at Money Manthan.)

Related Post

Cairn India: an oil story worth betting on – a guest post

Which stocks are keeping the Sensex down?

The BSE Sensex index comprises 30 stocks. 16 of them are currently trading above their 200 day EMAs – indicating bull markets. 14 are trading below their 200 day EMAs, preventing the Sensex from reaching new highs.

Here are brief thumb sketches of the laggards:

BHEL: Bounced up sharply from a low of 1905, but found resistance from the 200 day EMA; currently trading just below the long-term moving average.

CIPLA: Touched a low of 286 before a sharp rally to 332 – above its 200 day EMA; now consolidating between the 50 and 200 day EMAs.

DLF: The rally from the low of 209 stopped well short of the falling 200 day EMA; the stock has dropped down to seek support from its 50 day EMA.

Hero Honda: The stock touched a low of 1378; a spirited rally was stalled at its falling 200 day EMA; the stock has started to drop towards its 50 day EMA.

HUL: The stock dropped below its 200 day EMA on Jan 27 ‘11; it has been trading sideways since then, alternately going above and below the long-term moving average.

Jaiprakash Assoc.: From a low of 70, the stock reached a high just short of the 100 mark but well below its falling 200 day EMA; it has dropped down to seek support from its 50 day EMA.

L&T: The stock is trading sideways in a narrow range, just above its 50 day EMA but well below its falling 200 day EMA.

Maruti: Trading below the 200 day EMA for the past three months, the stock had a day’s close above the long-term moving average, only to drop below its 50 day EMA.

NTPC: The stock has been trading below the 200 day EMA since end-Oct ‘10; a couple of brief forays above the long-term average saw strong selling pressure; currently trading below its 50 day EMA.

ONGC: The bonus and stock split didn’t help the stock much; a day’s close above the 200 day EMA was followed by a steep drop below its 50 day EMA.

Rel. Comm.: A rally on strong volumes could only sustain above its 50 day EMA briefly, and has fizzled out already; the stock is well below its 200 day EMA.

Reliance: The stock has been trading in a broad sideways range, oscillating around its 200 day EMA – giving no returns to its investors; currently trading just below the long-term moving average.

Rel. Infra.: Another ADAG stock with equally disastrous results – a brief rally on good volumes above the 50 day EMA that is showing signs of weakness; the stock is trading way below its 200 day EMA.

Sterlite: A sharp rally accompanied by a volume spike took the stock from a low of 45 to a high of 68; but it stopped short of its falling 200 day EMA and started correcting.

Unless some of these 14 stocks start to rally soon, the Sensex may remain range-bound. Technically, the most likely candidates to help propel the Sensex upwards are BHEL, CIPLA, HUL, L&T, Maruti and Reliance. Dropping Rel. Comm. and Rel. Infra. from the index would not hurt either.

12 Sensex stocks displaying the ‘death cross’

The main reason why the Sensex isn’t showing a ‘death cross’ yet, is that only 12 of the 30 Sensex stocks are showing the ‘death cross’. The balance 18 are technically still in a bull market. For the uninitiated, the ‘death cross’ is the 50 day EMA crossing below the 200 day EMA on a price chart, signalling the beginning of a bear market. (The 50 day EMA crossing above the 200 day EMA, signalling the beginning of a bull market, is called a ‘golden cross’.)

Chart patterns of the 12 Sensex stocks displaying the ‘death cross’ (marked by blue ovals) are discussed below:

BHEL

BHEL is a PSU blue-chip that started correcting after hitting a peak in Oct ‘10. The correction in the Sensex from Nov ‘10 exacerbated the fall. The ‘death cross’ occurred in end-Nov ‘10, two days after the stock dropped sharply to an intra-day low of 2060. A strong pullback took the stock up to 2379, where it faced strong resistance from the combined 100 day and 200 day EMAs.

Though technically in a bear market, the stock is trying to build a base. A move above 2379 will create a bullish pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms. The RSI and slow stochastic are showing positive divergences, having reached higher tops as the stock made a lower top. Use the dip to accumulate.

DLF

DLF, the real-estate high flier, doesn’t really score very high on management ethics, accounting transparency or investor friendliness. The stock is in a long-term bear market. A brief rally took the stock to a 52 week high of 397 in early-Oct ‘10. That was an opportunity to sell. The ‘death cross’ in Dec ‘10 has restored the bear market. With the recent tightening of loans to real-estate players by banks and housing finance companies, you can forget about investing in this stock even as a contrarian play. It may be headed down to two-digits.

Hero Honda

Hero Honda was one of the stars of the bull market till its peak of 2094 in Apr ‘10. A technically overbought condition started a corrective spell. The confirmed news of Honda, Japan pulling out of the joint venture was given a thumbs down by the market. The uncertainty about the future has led to heavy selling. The ‘death cross’ in end-Jan ‘11 is signalling a bear market for this blue-chip. Avoid.

Jaiprakash Associates

Jaiprakash Associates has been in a down trend since touching a high of 180 in Oct ‘09. The ‘death cross’ occurred in May ‘10, confirming the bear market. The rally from Sep-Nov ‘10 was an exit opportunity. Launching huge projects and borrowing money by the truck-load seems to be the core competency of this company. The stock is headed towards low double-digits. Avoid.

Larsen & Toubro

It is a bit disappointing to see a blue-chip like Larsen & Toubro in this group of bearish Sensex stocks. It started correcting with the Sensex after touching a peak of 2212 on Nov 4 ‘10. The sharp fall in Jan ‘11 was partly due to the less-than-expected Q3 performance. The re-structuring into 9 separate companies has also caused some uncertainty in the minds of investors. The ‘death cross’ will occur tomorrow, but I would use this dip to accumulate the shares of this fundamentally strong and investor-friendly company.

Maruti Suzuki

Maruti Suzuki’s chart pattern has two ‘death crosses’ – one in May ‘10 and the other in Jan ‘11. What does it indicate? Technical analysis is not a science, and no rule is sacrosanct. The ‘death cross’ usually indicates the start of a bear market. But not in this case. The stock has been consolidating sideways since reaching a top of 1740 in Sep ‘09 – causing the ‘death cross’ to occur twice without entering a bear market. Yesterday’s low of 1170 formed a possible double-bottom. The RSI and slow stochastic are indicating a likely upward bounce. Accumulate.

NTPC

The NTPC stock chart pattern is also showing two ‘death crosses’ – the first in May ‘10 and the second in Nov ‘10. The stock has been drifting downwards since touching a peak of 242 on Dec 31 ‘09, and is in a bear market. The hype about the phenomenal growth and profit opportunities in the power sector has proved to be just that – hype. Avoid.

ONGC

The ONGC chart also has two ‘death crosses’ – one in Apr ‘10 and the other in Jan ‘11. The first one didn’t cause too much damage to the bulls. The current one is unlikely to do much damage also – because the FPO has been scheduled for Mar ‘11, and the DIIs are likely to buy at dips till the FPO goes through. This is a great company but the government’s meddling has messed up its operations. This is a major reason why I avoid all PSU stocks. Accumulate.

Reliance Comm

Where is the ‘death cross’ in the Reliance Communications chart? It happened more than two years back, and is not showing up in the one year chart pattern! The stock is in a long-term bear market and should ideally be removed from the Sensex 30 index. Only big-brother can bail this company out. Don’t go anywhere near this.

Reliance Infra

Reliance Infra chart also has two ‘death crosses’. The first one was caused by the sideways movement in Feb ‘10. The next one in Sep ‘10 signalled the bear market. Anil Ambani has proven to be a big bag of wind with a slow leak. If you are invested in this company, bail out now before it becomes too late.

Reliance Ind.

Reliance chart has two ‘death crosses’ as well – one in Aug ‘10 and the other in Jan ‘11. The first one was due to the sideways consolidation that has generated negative returns in the past one year. But the second one looks more ominous. The fall in Jan ‘11 has been steep and on increasing volumes. If Reliance doesn’t recover soon, it will drag down the Sensex with it. The technical indicators are hinting at a further fall. Wait for the correction to play out before entering. 

Tata Power

The ‘death cross’ in the Tata Power chart hasn’t yet happened – even though it has been marked in Sep ‘10. The 50 day EMA spent only a few trading sessions below the 200 day EMA due to the sideways consolidation, followed by a 52 week high. The current corrective spell may push the stock into a bear market. Wait for the correction to play out before entering.