Investment options in a bear market – a guest post

Both Sensex and Nifty indices have been sliding down in bear markets for the past 13 months. There doesn’t seem to be any signs of a recovery. In fact, the economic situation – both in India and abroad – seem to be heading from bad to worse. This is not the best time for investing in the stock market, because the market can fall much further.

What should investors do? Where can they park their savings and hope to get reasonable returns without undue risk? In this month’s guest post, Nishit discusses a few investment options that can provide decent returns without taking on too much risk.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With the markets falling continuously, the question uppermost in people’s minds is where to invest their hard earned money? Let us explore a few options.

PPF investment limits have been increased from Rs 70,000 to Rs 1 lakh, and the interest rate has been increased to 8.6%. This is one of the safest options for investors and should be used first before looking at anything else. Next it is tax saving time and IDFC has come with Infrastructure bonds which provide tax saving on an additional Rs 20,000 over and above the 1 lakh cap under Section 80C. These bonds have an interest yield of 9%. If you are in the highest tax bracket you will save additional tax of Rs 6,000. Thus, in the month of December itself, additional avenues to invest Rs 50,000 are possible.

Gilt funds are a good place to be in. In the past 1 month, bond yields have fallen from 8.97% to 8.4%. Bond funds have given a return of 4.5%. Now, this performance will not be repeated every month but one may get an annualized return of about 15% in the next 2 years in gilt funds.

A slightly more sophisticated way of generating money in a falling market is writing call options of the Nifty against your portfolio. For example, Jan 5200 Nifty call is trading at Rs 32. The margin for writing 1 lot is around Rs 20,000. So, for 5 lots one would get an inflow of Rs 7,500 and the margin of 1 lakh would be blocked till Jan 25^th 2012. This is another safe way of generating steady returns in a bear market.

HDFC Top 200 is a very good equity fund where one can continue to do a SIP every month. This fund has yielded a return of 22% over the last 15 years. During this time, several bear and bull markets have come and gone.

The above mentioned are just a few avenues for putting in one’s money as per his or her risk appetite. Also, there is the safe bank fixed deposit giving very good returns for risk-averse investors. My advice for those not needing that cash in a hurry is to lock in the money for next 5 years for returns between 9-10%, depending on the bank.

Also, there is the L&T NCD trading on the NSE which has an expiry of about 7.5 years still and yield is about 10%. The benefit is one gets the interest credited twice to the bank account.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Nishit Vadhavkar is a Quality Manager working at an IT MNC. Deciphering economics, equity markets and piercing the jargon to make it understandable to all is his passion. "We work hard for our money, our money should work even harder for us" is his motto.

Nishit blogs at Money Manthan.)

What small investors can learn from my trip to the bank

Thanks to the technological innovations of debit cards and credit cards, my trips to the bank have become few and far between. So, on the rare occasions that I do visit a bank, I’m pleased to see lots of eager, young faces looking busy and ready with a smiling ‘Can I help you, Sir?’ welcome.

The initial good feeling soon turns to exasperation. I had gone to get a copy of the account statement for March ‘11 that I had misplaced. A pretty young lady said it would only take a couple of minutes, and would I mind the wait? Not at all, I assured her. That is when things started going wrong.

First, she wanted to know my account number. Since I didn’t remember it, I gave her the April ‘11 statement copy. My daughter’s name appeared as the holder. So, the next question – without even checking that I was the second holder – was, who do you bank with? I mentioned the name of two competing private sector banks.

She had taken a look at the account balance, and came up with: Can we help you with your investments? I said, no thanks. By this time, a bright-looking male colleague came to inform her that the printer was down and the statement will be couriered to me. But he had overheard our conversation and decided to jump into the fray with: Have you thought about a SIP in a mutual fund?

I was already feeling irritated because the trip to the bank had been a waste of time. So I mentioned my preference for investing in stocks and asked him whether he had started a SIP. He proudly announced that he invested 20000 in a SIP every month, and explained how his holding cost will average out over the ups and downs of the market.

Had he thought it through, or was he merely repeating what he had been taught? It was his turn to be irritated. Simple arithmetic, he scoffed. When the market goes up, he gets fewer units, but when the market falls he gets more – so it averages out!

Had he done the arithmetic with real data? Did he know that bull markets tend to last 3 to 4 times longer than bear markets? Therefore his average holding cost is likely to rise over time? Now he didn’t look so confident. So he tried a different tack – not willing to pass up an opportunity to ‘cross-sell’.

Had I thought about investing in a private equity fund? I told him that SIPs and private equity funds are thought up by fund managers to help the fund and their own pockets. They don’t benefit the investor to the same extent.

He made another effort: A competing bank has made a ton of money by floating three private equity funds. I responded with: Does it prove that your fund will make money? Now he played his trump card: How do I make money when the market is down – like now?

I explained that investing is not a job where one had to make money every day. If one invests in good dividend paying stocks, like TISCO or ITC, then one can earn money whether the market is up or down. ‘Every one knows ITC pays good dividends’ – was his parting shot. So how many ITC shares did he own? He had accumulated 70 shares. Instead of his SIP, why didn’t he buy 100 shares of ITC every month? No answer this time – end of debate.

The moral of the story is: Regardless of whether you concur with my antipathy towards SIPs or not, always question investing strategies – whether you have thought it up yourself, or received advice from anyone.

Related Posts

About Cost averaging and Value averaging strategies

If you must SIP, sip good Darjeeling tea

Planning for a hassle-free Retirement (a guest post)

Do you remember what you did with your first pay/payment cheque? (Haven’t received your first cheque yet? What are you doing on this page!) Did you blow it up having a good time with friends and family? Why not? You don’t remain young forever. There is a long and bright future ahead of you – and plenty of time to save and invest. Right?

Nishit doesn’t think so. He started planning for his retirement as soon as he received his first pay cheque. He wanted to use the leverage of compounding over his entire working life. In this month’s guest post, he explains why.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Everyone invests money with the aim of having a comfortable nest egg at retirement. Most of us have not worked out how much money we need at retirement, and at what rate of return we will be comfortable. Most of us chase multibagger returns in the equity markets, burning our fingers in the process.

The magic of compounding is such that 1 lakh invested in the markets today turns into 19 lakhs after 20 years at a rate of 16% return every year. To make 16% every year your asset portfolio need not take undue risks. A Government securities fund over the past 10 years has given a compounded return of 9% on an annualized basis, and a good mutual fund like the HDFC Top 200 has given annualized return of 34% over the past 10 years.

Inflation is a monster which is like a silent killer. Now assuming an inflation rate of 8%, after 20 years, expenses of 1 lakh become 4.66 lakhs. Your assets of 1 lakh have transformed into 19 lakhs whereas the expenses have just gone up to 4.66 lakhs. You have a nice cushion of 14 lakhs.

Gold as an asset class has also yielded an annualized compounded return of 17% over the past 10 years. The trio of equity, gilt funds and gold should form the cornerstone of any investment portfolio. What I am trying to point out here is that investments need not be complex; any common person can invest making use of investment vehicles like Mutual Funds.

The above returns are through investments using the SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) method. One can invest a fixed amount every month, say Rs 5000 each, in a gold ETF, equity fund and a Debt fund. The idea of doing this is that you do not try and catch the bottom or top of any market. One need not invest in too many funds at one go.

India’s economy is growing and will continue to do so for the next 10 years at least. Anyone who is planning to retire with a comfortable income must start doing a SIP at the earliest. By doing this, one can ensure that one is financially independent after retirement. Add to this a Medical Insurance policy that will cover major health care expenses post retirement. The earlier one buys a Medical Insurance policy the fewer are the tests one has to undergo and easier it is to get one. Everyone should have a personal medical health insurance policy, as company policies expire when one leaves the company.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Nishit Vadhavkar is a Quality Manager working at an IT MNC. Deciphering economics, equity markets and piercing the jargon to make it understandable to all is his passion. "We work hard for our money, our money should work even harder for us" is his motto.

Nishit blogs at Money Manthan.)