Is the Nifty stuck in the Buttered Cat paradox?

Today’s (Dec 13 ‘11) intraday movements of the Nifty index was a classic example of volatility caused by uncertainty, with alternate bouts of buying and selling making the index gyrate about its previous day’s closing level.

Neither bulls nor bears were able to make up their minds about what to do, after yesterday’s big sell-off following the announcement of the negative IIP numbers for Oct ‘11.  It reminded me of the ‘Buttered Cat paradox’ – which is a thought experiment based on two adages:

• If you drop a cat from a height, it always falls on its feet
• If you drop a slice of buttered toast, it always lands with the buttered side down

What will happen if some one straps a piece of buttered toast (with the buttered side on top) on the back of a cat and then drops the cat from a height? The toast will try to make the cat land on its back. But the cat will try to land on its feet. The end result will be a gravity-defying equilibrium where the cat will hover just above the ground level and keep whirling round and round!

Rest assured that I didn’t make this up after imbibing a few too many. It is all over the Internet. I’m even providing the wiki link from which the cartoon below was copied:

Those of you who are enamoured by the unrealised potential of alternative energy stocks like Praj (ethanol) and Suzlon (wind) can imagine the potential of harnessing emission-free green energy from hundreds and thousands of whirling buttered cats.

If you enjoy thought experiments, here is one more. Imagine a fisherman living on a small island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean very near the international date line. Every morning, he sets out on his boat and crosses the international date line (thereby gaining 24 hours). After fishing the whole day, he returns to his island by crossing the international date line once more (this time losing 24 hours). Will he ever get old?

How small investors can widen their Circle of Competence

Warren Buffett is a strong believer of the Circle of Competence concept. If a company or business doesn’t fall within his Circle of Competence, he won’t touch it. He famously avoided buying into any high-tech company in the 1990s – when every one and his brother-in-law were investing in dot.com companies. He didn’t understand how high-tech companies were making money, and whether they had sustainable businesses. He missed the boom – and the inevitable bust that followed.

Warren Buffett is one of a kind. You and I will never be able to match his skill and wisdom in investing. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t follow some of his money-making principles. What if our Circle of Competence is too limited? Is there a way to widen the Circle?

Let me give you the bad news first. You can’t widen your Circle of Competence in a hurry. It is a process that will take a lot of time and effort. The good news is that the process is not difficult or complicated. It takes patience, perseverance, and a plan.

First make a short-list of all the knowledgeable people you know. The list isn’t likely to be a long one if you are looking for people with real knowledge. Not some one who knows how many hundreds Tendulkar scored before the age of 25, or the exact locations of the seven wonders of the world. But some one who knows about the economy, business and industry.

Next, figure out how you can meet such people without imposing too much on their time and patience. May be he is a friend’s father or your wife’s uncle. If you inform them in advance that you want to meet them, and the reasons for the meeting, knowledgeable people will be more than happy to share some of their experiences.

Don’t know anyone knowledgeable enough? Join discussion forums and investment groups. There are many in cyberspace. Each group or forum will have a few knowledgeable members. Try and pick their brains.

Going to a family wedding or a party? Don’t just waste your time eating and drinking and being merry. Introduce yourself to people you don’t know, and find out about what they do. If you show genuine interest in their activities, they will give you a lot of information that you won’t find in TV channels or pink papers.

Carry on this process for some time, and you will be amazed at how much wider your Circle of Competence can become. Then, have the discipline to stick to your Circle of Competence when choosing stocks to buy. That will prevent you from getting badly stuck in the shares of a company that you really know nothing about. Like Suzlon, or Punj Lloyd, or Bartronics.

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5 reasons why small investors should avoid stocks and buy mutual funds

Reason No. 1: Insufficient funds

Many small investors are unable to spare more than Rs 5000 or 10000 per month for investing. Such amounts are insufficient for investing in excellent stocks. Investors can at best buy only 25 shares of ITC, or 10 shares of HDFC.

Alternatively, they can buy 50 units of DSPBR Top 100 fund. The fund’s equity holdings include ITC, HDFC, TCS, Larsen & Toubro, Coal India, ONGC, ICICI Bank, Hindalco, Grasim, Bank of India, Bharti Airtel, Glaxo Pharma, Lupin, and many more stalwart stocks. 

Reason No. 2: Insufficent knowledge

Small investors have very little knowledge of how the stock market works, and what are the rules and criteria for success. They jump into the market feet first – attracted by stories of untold riches with very little effort. No wonder they end up losing big time.

Some never recover from the initial trauma, and quit the stock market for ever. Others plod along manfully, feeling happy if they can recover their losses after a few years. A handful eventually learn the ropes and end up with a decent retirement kitty.

It is much better to invest in a mutual fund, and leverage the knowledge of the fund manager.

Reason No. 3: Insufficient time

For most small investors, buying and selling stocks is a part-time activity that provides some extra money and thrills. But to become truly wealthy from one’s stock investments, one has to be engaged in it full time.

Why? Because one has to learn and monitor a variety of information – the economy, its particular cycle stage, inflation, interest rates, oil and other commodity prices, activities of FIIs and DIIs, quarterly results of individual companies, analysing annual reports, tracking promoter activities, their shareholding, and so on. Most investors have insufficient time to spare for such learning and monitoring.

The fund manager and his team get paid to do such monitoring on a daily basis. Benefit from their services.

Reason No. 4: Insufficent experience

It takes years of experience in the stock market to learn the intricacies of fundamental and technical analysis that would enable a small investor to distinguish between a good stock and an excellent stock. A good stock may give you decent returns over a couple of years and then fall from glory (think Pantaloon or Suzlon). An excellent stock – like ITC or HDFC – will provide superior returns year after year, and can be bequeathed to future generations.

Take a re-look at some of the stocks in the portfolio of DSPBR Top 100 fund (mentioned in Reason No. 1 above). That is an excellent portfolio selected by an experienced fund manager.

Reason No. 5: Insufficient risk tolerance

Almost inevitably, a stock falls in value when a small investor buys it, and rises in value when a small investor sells it. The result is usually panic, and a desperate desire to either recoup the loss or re-enter for more profits at the earliest. Without knowledge of her own risk tolerance, a small investor invariably sells too soon or buys too late.

Better leave the buying and selling of portfolio stocks to the fund manager, so you can sleep more easily at night.

Please note that a fund manager is human and can make errors in judgement. That is why it is important that you do a little research before selecting the fund you buy. Keep investing your monthly savings regularly in buying a fund through bull and bear markets. After a few years of regular investing, your investments are likely to grow considerably – and so will your experience. Then you can contemplate building a stock portfolio of your own.

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Why building a stock portfolio is like buying a car

Why building a stock portfolio is like buying a car

One of the requests I receive most often from blog readers and newsletter subscribers is to help them in building a ‘good’ stock portfolio. Many think that this is a trivial task. All they need is a list of ‘good’ stocks to buy. It is not that simple. A portfolio is not a ‘T’ shirt with a ‘L’ written on its label that will fit 90% of investors. It needs to be custom-tailored for a near perfect fit, to suit each individual investor’s background, experience, financial commitments, risk tolerance, and future plans.

But the real problem lies elsewhere. Most young investors can spare Rs 1 - 2 lakhs. Some have recently started earning and can only spare Rs 3000 – 5000 per month. These are insufficient amounts for building a ‘good’ stock portfolio. So, I use the analogy of buying a car.

One doesn’t go out and buy a car – specially if they have just started earning. Some prior planning is required. (Car loans are readily available nowadays, but the EMIs can burn a big hole in your pocket.) A better option may be to buy a scooter or motor cycle for immediate transportation needs. Even then, you need to learn the rules of the road, and get a driver’s licence before you buy anything.

Unfortunately, there is no licence required to invest in the stock market. Most small investors jump into the market without any knowledge of the basic rules of investing. No wonder their stocks crash and they suffer heavy injuries (to their savings). Grow your capital by regularly investing in fixed deposits, recurring deposits, PO MIS, ETFs, mutual fund units till you have sufficient capital to buy a ‘good’ car.

Can’t you buy Rs 3000 – 5000 worth of stocks every month? Yes, but which stocks? You can’t even buy 10 shares of Tata Steel. So you’ll probably buy 100 shares of Suzlon instead, or worse still, 800 shares of Cranes Software! Your risk of loss will increase proportionately. You are far better off investing that amount of money every month in a ‘good’ fund like DSPBR Top 100 or HDFC Prudence. After 5 or 6 years of regular savings, you may have sufficient capital for a ‘good’ portfolio.

How much is sufficient capital? I suggest Rs 5 lakhs as a bare minimum. Rs 10 lakhs is a more reasonable figure. Can’t cars be bought for Rs 1 - 2 lakhs? Yes, they can. But they won’t be ‘good’ cars. How about a used car? That may work, but is likely to require regular trips to the service centre for repairs. And you really can’t be sure if a used car is really a ‘good’ car. The previous owner may not have driven or maintained it properly.

Even with Rs 5 lakhs, you will only be able to buy a decent entry-level car. But if you are ready to spend Rs 10 lakhs, then your choice of ‘good’ cars increases significantly. And if you own a Rs 10 lakh car, chances are that you will take good care of it by following scheduled maintenance procedures, getting repairs done promptly, adding accessories that will enhance your driving comfort and experience.

A ‘good’ stock portfolio needs sufficient capital, and has to be nurtured and maintained as well – by keeping track of market happenings, individual stock results, using opportunities to book part profits or add more on dips. The emphasis should be on safety, and not about driving/investing recklessly.

How to read the Cash Flow Statement – Part 2

In last Tuesday’s post, I had covered the first part of the Cash Flow Statement – Cash Flow from Operating Activities. The next two parts will be discussed in this post.

Part 2: Cash Flow from Investing Activities 

To remain in business over the long haul, a company needs to grow. Without growth, a business will stagnate and eventually die or get acquired. But growth has a price. Cash has to be spent to buy land, machinery and related equipment, build factories and offices, acquire other companies, start subsidiaries or joint ventures, and make appropriate investments.

All of the above comes under Cash Flow from Investing Activities. You don’t have to be a genius to guess that this figure will be a (negative) one for most companies. Many mature companies, particularly those in the FMCG sector, don’t have much need for Capital Expenditure (i.e. spending cash on factories and equipment) because their rate of growth has slowed down.

Ideally, the depreciation amount in the Profit and Loss statement should be less than or equal to the amount of cash being spent in investing activities – because depreciation is meant to cover the notional loss due to wear and tear of the existing plant and machinery. If a company does not continuously spend on upgrading and modernising its facilities, it will not be able to compete with newer entrants who may have the latest technology and equipment.

The definition of Free Cash Flow is:

Cash Flow from Operating Activities – Capital Expenditure

This is a (negative) number for companies in their early growth stage, when cash generated from core operations may be insufficient to cover the cost of capital expenditure. But for well-established companies, positive Free Cash Flow is an indication of financial health. The more positive Free Cash Flow a company can generate, the easier it is for them to expand, acquire, pay dividend or buy back shares, and pay off loans.

Part 3: Cash Flow from Financing Activities 

What if a company has (negative) Free Cash Flow, or still worse, has (negative) Cash Flow from Operating Activities? Where will they get the cash to pay their suppliers, interest to banks for any loans taken, and for growing the business?

They can either resort to more borrowings, and/or issue more shares. If such companies are showing a net profit, then they are also expected to pay dividends to their shareholders. All inflows and outflows of cash due to loans, share issues, share buybacks, dividend payments come within Cash Flow from Financing Activities.

Financial prudence should dictate a company’s growth plans. As a thumb rule for selecting good stocks, about 60-70% of the Cash Flow from Investing Activities (Part 2) should be funded by positive Cash Flow from Operating Activities (Part 1); the balance 30-40% should come from Cash Flow from Financing Activities (Part 3).

Many companies forget the simple adage that one should cut one’s coat according to the cloth. They may even have positive Cash Flow from Operating Activities, but their ambitious growth plans require far more cash than they can afford. They resort to frequent borrowings and share issues in the hope of reaching the top quickly. One or two bad years can bring such companies down to their knees. Pantaloon and Suzlon come to mind.

(Note: The financial health of banks and financial institutions can’t be judged by analysing the Cash Flow Statement alone – because they need to borrow cash to give loans, and invariably have negative Cash Flow from Operating Activities. Price to Book Value and Return on Assets are better measures for such companies.)

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