The BSE Sensex index comprises 30 stocks. 16 of them are currently trading above their 200 day EMAs – indicating bull markets. 14 are trading below their 200 day EMAs, preventing the Sensex from reaching new highs.
Here are brief thumb sketches of the laggards:
BHEL: Bounced up sharply from a low of 1905, but found resistance from the 200 day EMA; currently trading just below the long-term moving average.
CIPLA: Touched a low of 286 before a sharp rally to 332 – above its 200 day EMA; now consolidating between the 50 and 200 day EMAs.
DLF: The rally from the low of 209 stopped well short of the falling 200 day EMA; the stock has dropped down to seek support from its 50 day EMA.
Hero Honda: The stock touched a low of 1378; a spirited rally was stalled at its falling 200 day EMA; the stock has started to drop towards its 50 day EMA.
HUL: The stock dropped below its 200 day EMA on Jan 27 ‘11; it has been trading sideways since then, alternately going above and below the long-term moving average.
Jaiprakash Assoc.: From a low of 70, the stock reached a high just short of the 100 mark but well below its falling 200 day EMA; it has dropped down to seek support from its 50 day EMA.
L&T: The stock is trading sideways in a narrow range, just above its 50 day EMA but well below its falling 200 day EMA.
Maruti: Trading below the 200 day EMA for the past three months, the stock had a day’s close above the long-term moving average, only to drop below its 50 day EMA.
NTPC: The stock has been trading below the 200 day EMA since end-Oct ‘10; a couple of brief forays above the long-term average saw strong selling pressure; currently trading below its 50 day EMA.
ONGC: The bonus and stock split didn’t help the stock much; a day’s close above the 200 day EMA was followed by a steep drop below its 50 day EMA.
Rel. Comm.: A rally on strong volumes could only sustain above its 50 day EMA briefly, and has fizzled out already; the stock is well below its 200 day EMA.
Reliance: The stock has been trading in a broad sideways range, oscillating around its 200 day EMA – giving no returns to its investors; currently trading just below the long-term moving average.
Rel. Infra.: Another ADAG stock with equally disastrous results – a brief rally on good volumes above the 50 day EMA that is showing signs of weakness; the stock is trading way below its 200 day EMA.
Sterlite: A sharp rally accompanied by a volume spike took the stock from a low of 45 to a high of 68; but it stopped short of its falling 200 day EMA and started correcting.
Unless some of these 14 stocks start to rally soon, the Sensex may remain range-bound. Technically, the most likely candidates to help propel the Sensex upwards are BHEL, CIPLA, HUL, L&T, Maruti and Reliance. Dropping Rel. Comm. and Rel. Infra. from the index would not hurt either.
